teaching us to guess

  1. The importance of Bayes’ theorem is that it provides a very precise measure of how much a new piece of evidence should make us change our ideas about the world.
  2. Bayes’ theorem provides a yardstick by which we can judge whether we are using new evidence appropriately.
  3. Our brain is a Bayesian machine that discovers what is in the world by making predictions and searching for the causes of sensations.
  4. Our brain never rests from this endless round of prediction and updating.
  5. Inside your head there is an amazing labor saving device.