crunch to fail

  1. attempt to create a future that does not now exist
  2. mindlessly crunch numbers that do exist

Nor is the problem the failure to abandon models and move on to new ones when they cannot adequately explain the data.

In my career, the attempt to find models that can explain past data and predict future data with more accuracy has caused Old Keynesian models and New Classical Models to be replaced by Real Business Cycle and New Keynesian models.

And it’s time for that to happen again.